Hiller Instinct: 2014 Democratic State Convention

Ignore the hands and forget the polls.  For the Democrats running for governor, there’s only one number that counts right now:

“15% of course,” said Don Berwick.
“15%,” said Joe Avellone.
“That would be 15%”, said State Treasurer Steve Grossman.
 “One-five,” said Juliette Kayyem.
“Fifteen,” said A.G. Martha Coakley.

That’s because–this weekend–when state Democrats meet in Worcester, party rules state “any candidate who does not receive at least 15% on the first ballot shall not be…on the primary ballot.”

They all say they’ll get it:
“Oh, we will, I’m very confident,” said Coakley.
Hiller:  “How many people are going to be on the ballot?”
Coakley:  “I don’t know that but I’m 100% confident that we’ll get 15%.”

“Everybody wants to finish number one,” said Grossman.  “Do you know anybody who’s in a competitive business who doesn’t want to finish number one?  I’ve never met anybody.”
Hiller: “I know there’s some people that just want 15%.”
Grossman:    “Well, that’s true. That’s true.

Berwick: “Oh, we’ll be on the ballot I’m totally confident.”
Hiller: “No question?”
Berwick:  “No, none at all.”
Hiller:  “How many other people are going to be on the ballot?”
Berwick:  “Oh, I don’t know, but our momentum is unbelievable.”

Kayyem:  “We’re very confident I’ll have my 15%, look I take, as I said, I take nothing for granted.”
Hiller:  “How many people do you think are getting on the ballot?”
Kayyem:  “Oh, I don’t know, I only look at Juliette Kayyem.  Are you kidding?  I don’t have the energy to worry about everyone else.  What are his numbers, what are her numbers?”

Avellone:  “I’m looking forward to the convention, I’m definitely going to be on the ballot.”
Hiller: “If it turns out you don’t get on what will this race lose?”
Avellone:  “You know I haven’t even thought about it because I know I’m on.”

I don’t think everybody is counting right, because after Coakley and Grossman get most of the votes, there aren’t going to be enough left to put three others on the ballot.

My guess is Berwick makes it, Avellone doesn’t, and Juliette Kayyem is on the bubble.