Cold, With all of the Fixins’

This Thanksgiving your weather will come just like you turkey…with all of the fixings, trimmings and accoutrements.  In other words, we’ve got the possibility of rain, freezing rain and snow in the forecast for Thursday.

Speaking of snow, Boston officially recorded a trace of it today.  Parts of western MA got much more…Heath reported over 6 inches!  As Jeremy put it, there was a “healthy plume of snow” blowing off of Lake Ontario today as seen in this satellite/radar image from noon.

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The lake effect snow machine works best when you have strong, cold winds blowing over relatively warm water.  The same is true for the ocean effect snow we often witness closer to the coast.  I know you noticed the wind…we had several gusts over 50 mph across MA today.  As for the water, the Great Lakes are unusually warm!!!  Water temps are WELL above average in all of the Great Lakes.  Here are the stats for Lake Ontario from NOAA

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And that’s due in large part to the unusually warm summer and fall weather across most of the United States.  So, based on that, I expect to see a lot more lake effect snow in New York as we head into winter and don’t be surprised if some of those flakes make it all the way across New England on some occasions.

It’s a bit counterintuitive, but the opposite is also true…you expect less lake effect snow when the weather has been unusually cold.  When the fall is cold in the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes start to ice over, killing the chance for lake effect snow heading into winter.

That concludes the weather lesson for today.  How about the forecast?!?

Cold pretty much sums it up!  Just in case you’re wondering, 50 degrees would be a “normal” high temperature for this time of year.  We won’t be anywhere near that this week.  Our daytime high temperature today was pretty close to our normal nighttime low temperature for late November.  Today won’t be the only example of that this week.

Expect more sunshine on Tuesday, but also more in the way of gusty winds, although not as strong as Monday.  High temps will reach the low 40s.

Wednesday will be one of the better days this week with mostly sunny skies, lighter winds, and high temps in the low 40s…good news if you are travelling locally that day.  Not all of the country will be that quiet though..

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Clouds move in Wednesday night as temperatures drop to the upper 20s and low 30s.  Some very light precipitation might drop from those clouds.  Any precip will be spotty, but the problem is that temperatures will be cold enough to support the entire mix of wintry weather…snow, freezing drizzle and just plain drizzle.  We aren’t expecting any accumulation of anything, so don’t worry too much if you are driving to grandma’s house that morning, but do keep in mind that even the slightest amount of ice can create some slick spots.  The best chance for wintry precip will be in the interior.  Temps won’t rise much at all by Thursday afternoon, but should be just warm enough that any spotty wintry precip will become just a few sprinkles of rain.  For the most part, it will be a cloudy day.

The rest of the holiday weekend looks iffy at best.  Spotty drizzle is a good bet for Friday.  Rain showers are more likely on Saturday in Southern New England while the ski country could get significant snow.  There could be some clearing on Sunday but right now the jury is still deliberating (read: there is very little agreement among the computer models).  Each day temps won’t climb beyond the low 40s.

 

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