WHAT?! I’m sure that was your immediate response to seeing the title of this blog. Read the entire blog before you freak out and change your plans for tomorrow. First, Matthew is NOT going to have a direct impact on New England. I’m still getting a few questions on social media: “Is the hurricane coming here?” The answer is NO. Right now, Matthew is hugging the coastline of North Carolina and bringing torrential rain to that state, up through Virginia. Rainfall rates are between 4-6″ PER HOUR. The flooding rains associated with Matthew (still a Cat 1 hurricane) will continue into the overnight hours even though the storm will start to move east, away from the coastline – and eventually out to sea. Here’s the latest from the NHC (5pm update):
As you can see, Matthew is expected to weaken into a tropical storm late tonight and begin that track eastward, and eventually southeastward (still some questions here, but the bottom line is that it will go out to sea)… So, with this track moving away from our area, why will we be seeing any tropical moisture tomorrow? Well, there’s a cold front to our west that will move in and sort of “capture” some of that tropical moisture from Matthew and bring it up to us. I think Rob Eicher came up with the most genius analogy when it comes to this front. He wrote in his blog today: “Think of the cold front as the weather equivalent of Robin Hood…stealing rain from the southeast, where it is NOT needed, and bringing it to the northeast, where it is desperately needed.”
With that said, this tropical moisture in store for tomorrow is not in store for everyone. While I do think we all get some scattered showers, I think most rain totals will amount to 0.10″-0.25″. The “Sunday Soaker” I spoke of before is really only for the Cape and islands, where a possible 1-2″ of rain could fall through the day tomorrow. The higher totals will be where that front hangs out the longest, ushering in the wet weather from the SW.
I know there are some outdoor activities tomorrow – one of which I’ve been looking forward to: The #BAAHalfMarathon starts at 8am. While I plan on some scattered showers through the 13.1 mile course, I don’t think (and I certainly hope) we don’t get soaked! Temps will be in the upper 50s to near 60° in the morning, falling into the mid 50s by the afternoon/evening. Best of luck to you if you are running! Hope to see you on the course! – Breezy