We’re getting into the thick of it now, as I write this blog. Our overnight storm system, low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast is rapidly deepening (strengthening) and charging north, into New England as we’re wrapping up the weekend. I was saying earlier this evening that the anchors may as well just call me “Bri ‘Bombogenesis’ Eggers” because I do really like talking about storm systems “bombing out.” This storm is expected to do so, dropping more than 24 millibars in pressure in 24 hours. This will cause the wind to strengthen as the pressure deepens – and the bouts of heavy rain will help bring down some screaming fast winds higher up in the atmosphere, down here to us at the surface. Additionally, there will be a hybrid/tropical-ish like low (what once was “Tropical Storm Philippe”) that tries to pivot around the main low, perhaps passing close to, or over the Cape between 3-6am Monday – also enhancing heavy rain and strong wind.
I mentioned those “screaming fast winds higher up in the atmosphere” – which in some cases are 100mph or stronger!! It’d be best if those stronger winds would stay upstairs… but some of those stronger gusts, even hurricane-force (74mph+) could make it down to the surface tonight (focusing on the coastline, Cape Ann, Cape Cod and Nantucket). A lot of times, cooler marine air near the surface creates an inversion that limits how much strong wind mixes down to the ground. However, when you start introducing/infusing tropical air, that inversion is either weaker or can erode. So the concern is the a portion of these very strong winds will be able to mix down to the ground overnight, especially in any tropical downpours that get going – or in an embedded thunderstorm. Additionally, strong winds will be felt inland too, with gusts 40-55mph. The combination of strong wind gusts, a saturated ground, and leaves on the trees, will likely create issues with tree damage and at least scattered power outages across New England. Have those cell phones charged and set a back up alarm for Monday morning in the event you lose power tonight!
We’ll catch some lulls in the winds mid Monday morning before gusty winds return late morning/early afternoon on the back side of the storm. Those winds will be out of the west. Monday is a windy day – even after the rain moves out after 4-5am.
The heavier bands of rain are starting to work in as I write this blog. All said and done by 4-5am tomorrow morning, totals should be somewhere between 1-3″ for most. Not a LOT, but it will fall quickly, producing localized street flooding for some. The heaviest rain likely fall between 10pm – 4am. With that in mind, a flash flood watch has been posted for the area by the National Weather Service. While some small streams may overflow their banks, main rivers across the eastern half of the state will likely avoid significant flooding. There’s a higher risk of river flooding in western and central New England.
In terms of coastal flooding, despite the howling winds, we have a few things going for us. 1) Tides and astronomically low. 2) Wind changes direction from SE to S to SW to W. 3) It’s a fast moving system. The combination of all 3 factors limit storm surge to 1-3′, which considering the tides astronomically low and winds peak at low tide, we’ll catch some splash-over but no significant coastal flooding is expected.
Halloween still looks good for the little ghosts and goblins!
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