Jose update
Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the East Coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, all the way up to the South Shore of Massachusetts. This WATCH means that we are “watching out for” the potential for tropical storm conditions with the close pass by of Jose. Tropical storm-force winds are sustained winds 39-73mph, with higher gusts. Jose is still a Cat 1 hurricane this evening with winds of 90mph (showing some strengthening throughout today). The storm is tracking north, ever so slowly – and while expected to stay offshore – the the coastline is preparing for potential impact. Once Jose gets north of the Gulf Stream however, water temps south of our coastline are cool, which will likely weaken Jose to a tropical storm by Wednesday (at its closest pass to Southern New England).
While forecast models change from run to run, the general thinking hasn’t changed a whole lot for us. Think of this as a Fall nor’easter in terms of feel and wind direction and bands of rain. Of course, not all nor’easter are made the same, and the difference from feeling the impacts of a modest one vs. a nasty one, will be determined by the exact track Jose takes. Farther south in the “cone of uncertainty,” it’s a lower impact storm; farther north, the wind/rain #s go up. The speed of the storm itself will also matter, as a slow storm that passes closer would produce higher rain totals too… and could linger into Thursday.
As a starting point, let’s say the track is near the benchmark (southeast of Nantucket where many nor’easters track). Rain would be heaviest in southeast Mass, especially across the Cape and taper off to the northwest. Rain would begin Tuesday morning for all, and the heaviest would be Tuesday night/Wednesday, especially across the Cape. The highest totals expected for the Cape and islands would be 3-5″ if this current forecast track verifies. While we can handle this amount of rain over a couple of days, there could be times of downpours which may cause localized urban flooding issues.
The wind is forecast to increase Tuesday afternoon and peak Wednesday, perhaps gusting 45-55mph along the south coast/Cape and Islands… and Nantucket may record some gusts 65mph+. Combine the NE wind with astronomical high tides, beach erosion and coastal flooding also becomes a concern. The extent of the flooding and intensity of the wind and rain will depend on the exact track. Tides Tuesday afternoon – Thursday are likely to be influenced by the northeast to north winds.
