Cold and Dry For Now… Watching the Weekend

First thing first… while the wind is not as strong today, nor the atmosphere as cold, it’ll still be a breezy and chilly day.  Winds still gust to 30 mph as high temps trend toward the 30 degree mark.  We’ll also feature mostly sunny skies.  

Mainly clear skies and temps in the teens at night, near 30 by day won’t change all that much over the next few days.  The wind won’t be as gusty tomorrow and Friday, so we have that going for us. 

This weekend potential… The storm we’re watching has now moved into the Pacific Northwest.  That energy will now work across the Rockies and eventually dive into the Southeast U.S. before developing into a powerful Nor’easter.  That’s a long ways to travel, thus it’s too early to start drawing up snow total maps around here as a track change of a 100 miles can make all the difference in how much snow we get.  

I am confident that a Nor’easter will form off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coastline and hammer parts of the Eastern Seaboard down there with snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding. In fact, major coastal flooding is likely across New Jersey, points south with heavy snow from Southern PA to Northern VA with 1-2 feet of it a potential there.  

What’s still yet to be determined is exactly how far north the coastal low will move. While most model guidance suggests a far enough northerly track to bring in some snow, wind and coastal flooding potential, there are some solutions within model land that suggest it’s still plausible for the brunt of this storm to sneak out south of us.  Right now, I’d lean toward snow moving in Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with the highest chance of a plowable snow near/south of the Mass Pike with the most likely locations seeing it in Southeast Mass/RI and CT. The Cape/Islands may have mixing issues.  There will be a sharp cutoff in precipitation with the lowest snow totals likely being over northern Mass and southern New Hampshire.  With this said, a shift in the precip shield by 50-75miles either south or north would have big implications in snow totals.  With a storm that’s 3000 miles and 3.5 days away, plenty of time to watch this one. 

In terms of the coast, there’s a full moon this weekend and high tides Saturday night around 11pm and Sunday morning around 11am.  Those are the tides to watch.  Even if the heaviest snow stays south of us, gusty winds develop, especially along the coast with a good bet of wind gusts from the north/northeast of 40-50mph over the Cape and Islands.  Pockets of minor to moderate coastal flooding/beach erosion is possible, especially along the northeast facing shorelines of Plymouth County and the Cape.  Exact wind/flood threat will depend on exact storm track, so something else to keep you posted on. 

Bottom line… still some details to iron out.  Don’t can those Saturday night plans just yet.  

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