NEW YORK (AP) — The online prediction market platform Kalshi said Monday that it has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding the former Republican congressman likely engaged in insider trading when he profited by betting against his attendance at the State of the Union address.
The company announced the ban after its compliance department said it had established reasonable cause to believe Santos engaged in insider trading, contributing to speculation over whether he would attend the address before turning a $17,839 profit on his trading activity when he did not.
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said it was the first permanent ban in the company’s history. She said those affected by four other new enforcement cases announced Monday would only be banned from trading temporarily because they cooperated with Kalshi’s Compliance Department.
The Compliance Department issued the lifetime ban, effective last Friday, against Santos, preventing him from accessing its platform directly or indirectly. The site also imposed a $71,356 penalty.
The convicted ex-congressman had repeatedly discussed his intention to attend the State of the Union, which came just four months after he was granted clemency by President Donald Trump in a fraud case that led to his expulsion from the U.S. House.
On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%.
Then, minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Immediately, several social media users accused him of running another scheme.
An email seeking comment from Santos on Monday was not immediately returned.
But on X, Santos called Kalshi “an unserious company” and labeled the ban “frivolous nonsense” in one post and, in another, said “thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform” and added: “Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.”
Kalshi’s Compliance Department said Santos was prohibited from trading in the market over whether he would attend the address because he was capable of influencing the outcome. Yet, it added, he placed a series of large bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on whether he would attend the event and then began making public statements regarding whether he would attend in an effort to influence the price of the bets.
“Some of these included false or misleading statements,” the Compliance Department said as it described its findings.
A month ago, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle a federal investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over the trades.
The federal probe prompted rival online prediction platform Polymarket to cut ties with Santos in June.
In March, Santos addressed complaints about his attendance at the State of the Union address on his podcast.
“I guess people lost money,” he said. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Santos, who won office as a Republican after inventing a bogus persona as a Wall Street dealmaker, was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024. After serving just 84 days, he was ordered released by Trump, who called Santos a “rogue” but said he did not deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican.
Kalshi’s temporary three-year bans announced Monday included a Republican candidate for Congress in North Carolina and failed candidates for governor in California and Maine.
The company issued a $2,589 fine against retired Col. Laurie Buckhout, who’s running against Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a swing district in northeastern North Carolina. Kalshi said Buckhout admitted placing bets of less than $1,000 on her campaign. The company said the candidate cooperated with its investigation.
“I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right,” Buckhout said in a statement. “Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”
The company also handed down three-year suspensions to Stephen Cloobeck, a timeshare mogul who briefly ran for California governor and who Kalshi says bought $10,000 worth of contracts on his candidacy, and Ben Midgley, a businessman who briefly competed for the GOP nomination for Maine governor and bet less than $1,000 on his campaign. Neither man could immediately be reached for comment.
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