Jose, Lee and Maria

Even though Hurricane Jose is some 900 miles away from Boston, we’re already feeling some of the force of this storm.  A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the South Coast of New England through the day tomorrow – and I imagine will be extended as the storm continues to send some big swells in our direction… and move in our direction.

Jose, currently a Cat 1, has made a slight turn this afternoon to crawl toward the north at about 6mph.  While the Cape and islands are still included in the “cone of uncertainty,” the updated track from the National Hurricane Center takes Jose (as a tropical storm) well SE of the 40/70 benchmark.

While this forecast track is encouraging, it’s important to still note that forecast error 4 days out can average 150 miles.  That means that this forecast could still change – either sliding closer to S. New England… or even farther away.

If this forecast track verifies though, we’ll experience something very similar to a rainy nor’easter.  Many of us inland may even spend Tues/Wed wondering, “What storm?” or saying, “No way, Jose!” when in Worcester all you get is a breeze and some showers.  The strongest wind and heaviest rain look to be most likely “for the fish,” but the waters will still be churned up by this storm – which will certainly be noticeable for mariners.  We’ll also need to watch the coastline very closely for erosion and flooding.  With high astronomical tides (new moon) and a NE wind pushing an angry ocean up against the coast, there’s likely to be some issues.

Of course we will continue to keep you posted every step of the way – but I also need to keep you updated on more activity in the Tropics:

Tropical Storm Lee does not look like a threat to land – but Maria needs to be watched very closely.  Honestly, it’s heartbreaking to even look at the forecast track from the Hurricane Center, taking a Cat 2 or 3 through the same areas that are still in recovery mode from the devastation of Irma.  Where it goes past this track… who knows?  But you better believe we’re all watching closely.