Minimal Impact

We’ve been watching the potential for Sunday snowfall for several days now, and the “trend” has been shifting the track of this system farther to the SE.  This is good news, if you weren’t stoked about seeing more snow tomorrow on the last full day of winter.  The NWS in Taunton decided to drop all winter weather watches/advisories for tomorrow, which means minimal impact when it comes to the snow.  However, that’s not to say that we don’t see any snow at all – there will be some – but some of us won’t see any flakes at all – and the places that do get accumulating snow will not see a lot of it.  Following?  Let me break it down.

This system heads to the SE of Nantucket through the day tomorrow, and it does throw some of its snow shield in our direction.  However, as the center of the system tracks farther to the SE, so will the surrounding snow shield.  I do think that there’s still a chance we see a few flakes as far NW as Boston, but I don’t think it will snow hard enough or fast enough in Boston to amount to any accumulation.  The real snow accumulation should stay confined to Plymouth, points S & E with just a coating to 2″ on the way.

I just said it needs to snow pretty quickly and fairly hard to accumulate.  There are a couple of factors that will act against the accumulating snow:

1)  Temps above freezing:  We made it into the mid to upper 30s in most spots today, and we’ll do it again tomorrow.  It needs to snow hard and fast to keep up with the melting that happens when flakes hit the ground.

2)  It’s the middle of March:  The sun angle at solar noon on Monday (the first day of spring) is about 23.5° HIGHER than it was at solar noon on December 21st (first day of winter).  You must have noticed it in recent days like today.  You can step into the direct sunlight and feel about 5-10° warmer than the air temperature reads!  This will work in our favor in the coming weeks – IF we do get more snow in the forecast, it won’t be able to stick around for long!

The other impact of this ocean storm tomorrow will be the gusty wind.  This will also be more-so for the Cape and islands, but also along the coastline.  Gusts for Nantucket could get between 50-60mph.  Strong wind like this could take down tree branches and power-lines, so there’s always the possibility of some isolated power outages.

Heading to St. Patrick’s Day Parade in Southie tomorrow?  Hold onto your green hat!  It will be gusty and chilly, with highs in the mid 30s.

For the first two days of spring, we get a boost in temperatures:  Mid 40s for Monday and close to 50° on Tuesday!  Soak it up while you can.  Another arctic front moves through to bring another cold blast into the Northeast.

Also, it’s worth noting the elephant in the room:  I know you see that “58” on Saturday.  That is still subject to change.  Some models have the mild air and an “inside runner” (meaning we’d be tracking rain, rather than snow) in the forecast for next week.  Other forecast models (and runs of models) are showing colder temps and some snow.  Still something to keep an eye on… I just don’t advise making any beach plans this early in the game.  Spring weather in New England is very finicky.  Stay tuned.  – Breezy