It seems like we’ve been talking about Hermine, it’s twists and turns, and it’s future impact forever now. While it’s been a slow process to get in here, it’ll also be a slow to get out of here.
This morning, as of the 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Hermine has winds of 70mph as it swirls about 250 miles south of the New England coastline. While the clouds have thickened this morning, the rain has not arrived as showers likely hold off until mid to late morning for the Cape/Islands and until this afternoon closer to Boston, points northwest. In fact, outside Route 128, it may take until mid to late afternoon to throw some showers back in. The breeze will continue to increase as well out of the northeast as Hermine drifts closer to us, and the pressure gradient between the retreating high and Hermine create those stronger gusts. Wind gusts this afternoon into the evening run 40-50mph for the Buzzards Bay, the Cape and Islands, with strongest across the Islands. For the Vineyard and Nantucket, a gust past 50mph is possible. Once you work your way off the south coast of New England, gusts are on the order of 30-40mph near the coast and more like 20-30mph inland.
Gusty winds are still likely Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across Southeast Mass, although as Hermine becomes weaker, those gusts won’t be as strong… take about 10-15 mph off that map above, that’ll likely be in the ballpark of Tuesday gusts.
One thing has been for sure, Hermine has been a big wave maker with seas pushing 20-30 feet on the northwest side of the storm. Wave heights will continue to build along the coastal waters as the rip current risk runs moderated to high today, and over the next few days. With a pounding surf, minor beach erosion is possible with pockets of moderate erosion a potential in most exposed areas of the Islands. Tides are astronomically on the lower side, so widespread coastal flooding is not expected, but pockets of minor coastal flooding are likely, mainly near the South Coast of New England including the Islands.
In terms of rain, while showers are in and out later today, through Wednesday, it’s not a drought buster. From Boston, northwest, mainly towns receive less than 0.5″ of water with the best chance for locally 1-2″ of rain falling over SE Mass.
Once this storm leaves us, it’s back to the heat with temps pushing 90 by Thursday and Friday.
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